Black Swans

Black Swans
Author: Eve Babitz
Release: 2018-04-01
Editor: Catapult
Pages: 256
ISBN: 9781640090514
Language: en
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"Babitz’s talent for the brilliant line, honed to a point, never interferes with her feel for languid pleasures." —The New York Times Book Review A new reissue of Babitz’s collection of nine stories that look back on the 1980s and early 1990s—decades of dreams, drink, and glimpses of a changing world. Black Swans further celebrates the phenomenon of Eve Babitz, cementing her reputation as the voice of a generation. With an introduction by Stephanie Danler, bestselling author of Sweetbitter. "On the page, Babitz is pure pleasure—a perpetual–motion machine of no–stakes elation and champagne fizz." —The New Yorker

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
Author: Mercedes Lackey
Release: 2000-05-01
Editor: Astra Publishing House
Pages: 312
ISBN: 9781101119068
Language: en
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After his wife's untimely death, a powerful sorcerer dedicates his life to seeking revenge against all womankind. He turns his captives into beautiful swans--who briefly regain human form by the fleeting light of the moon. Only Odette, noblest of the enchanted flock, has the courage to confront her captor. But can she gain the allies she needs to free herself and the other swan-maidens from their magical slavery?A monumental tale of loyalty and betrayal, of magic good and evil, of love both carnal and pure, and of the duality of human nature, The Black Swan is a rich tapestry which is sure to become an all-time masterpiece of fantasy.

Three Black Swans

Three Black Swans
Author: Caroline B. Cooney
Release: 2012-03-27
Editor: Ember
Pages: 290
ISBN: 9780385738682
Language: en
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Lives are in the balance in bestselling author Caroline B. Cooney’s newest young adult thriller, Three Black Swans. Missy and her cousin Claire are best friends who finish each other’s sentences and practically read each other’s minds. It’s an eerie connection—so eerie that Missy has questions she wants to put to her parents. But she’s afraid to ask. So when Missy hears an expert discussing newborn babies on the radio, it makes her wonder about her family. Missy just can’t let go of those nagging questions, and decides to use a school project about scientific hoaxes to try to uncover the answers. She enlists Claire to help. As part of the project the girls perform a dramatic scene that is captured on video at school. After the video is posted on YouTube, Missy and Claire realize that they’ve opened Pandora’s box and much more than they ever imagined has come out. Not only are their identities called into question, but so is the future of everyone involved. In this riveting, heartrending story by thriller author Caroline B. Cooney, the truth changes the lives of three families—as the bonds of blood must withstand the strains of long-hidden secrets that are at last revealed.

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
Author: Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Release: 2007-04-17
Editor: Random House
Pages: 481
ISBN: 9781588365835
Language: en
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The Black Swan is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, and The Bed of Procrustes. A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives. Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don’t know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the “impossible.” For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don’t know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, “On Robustness and Fragility,” which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world. Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book—itself a black swan. Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb “The most prophetic voice of all.”—GQ Praise for The Black Swan “[A book] that altered modern thinking.”—The Times (London) “A masterpiece.”—Chris Anderson, editor in chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail “Idiosyncratically brilliant.”—Niall Ferguson, Los Angeles Times “The Black Swan changed my view of how the world works.”—Daniel Kahneman, Nobel laureate “[Taleb writes] in a style that owes as much to Stephen Colbert as it does to Michel de Montaigne. . . . We eagerly romp with him through the follies of confirmation bias [and] narrative fallacy.”—The Wall Street Journal “Hugely enjoyable—compelling . . . easy to dip into.”—Financial Times “Engaging . . . The Black Swan has appealing cheek and admirable ambition.”—The New York Times Book Review From the Hardcover edition.

Black Swan Green

Black Swan Green
Author: David Mitchell
Release: 2006-04-11
Editor: Random House
Pages: 304
ISBN: 9781588365286
Language: en
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By the New York Times bestselling author of The Bone Clocks and Cloud Atlas | Longlisted for the Man Booker Prize Selected by Time as One of the Ten Best Books of the Year | A New York Times Notable Book | Named One of the Best Books of the Year by The Washington Post Book World, The Christian Science Monitor, Rocky Mountain News, and Kirkus Reviews | A Los Angeles Times Book Prize Finalist | Winner of the ALA Alex Award | Finalist for the Costa Novel Award From award-winning writer David Mitchell comes a sinewy, meditative novel of boyhood on the cusp of adulthood and the old on the cusp of the new. Black Swan Green tracks a single year in what is, for thirteen-year-old Jason Taylor, the sleepiest village in muddiest Worcestershire in a dying Cold War England, 1982. But the thirteen chapters, each a short story in its own right, create an exquisitely observed world that is anything but sleepy. A world of Kissingeresque realpolitik enacted in boys’ games on a frozen lake; of “nightcreeping” through the summer backyards of strangers; of the tabloid-fueled thrills of the Falklands War and its human toll; of the cruel, luscious Dawn Madden and her power-hungry boyfriend, Ross Wilcox; of a certain Madame Eva van Outryve de Crommelynck, an elderly bohemian emigré who is both more and less than she appears; of Jason’s search to replace his dead grandfather’s irreplaceable smashed watch before the crime is discovered; of first cigarettes, first kisses, first Duran Duran LPs, and first deaths; of Margaret Thatcher’s recession; of Gypsies camping in the woods and the hysteria they inspire; and, even closer to home, of a slow-motion divorce in four seasons. Pointed, funny, profound, left-field, elegiac, and painted with the stuff of life, Black Swan Green is David Mitchell’s subtlest and most effective achievement to date. Praise for Black Swan Green “[David Mitchell has created] one of the most endearing, smart, and funny young narrators ever to rise up from the pages of a novel. . . . The always fresh and brilliant writing will carry readers back to their own childhoods. . . . This enchanting novel makes us remember exactly what it was like.”—The Boston Globe “[David Mitchell is a] prodigiously daring and imaginative young writer. . . . As in the works of Thomas Pynchon and Herman Melville, one feels the roof of the narrative lifted off and oneself in thrall.”—Time

Risk Surprises and Black Swans

Risk  Surprises and Black Swans
Author: Terje Aven
Release: 2014-08-13
Editor: Routledge
Pages: 276
ISBN: 9781317626329
Language: en
Available for:

DESCRIPTION BOOK:

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

Black Swans and Other Stories

Black Swans and Other Stories
Author: Sunil Govinnage
Release: 2002
Editor: iUniverse
Pages: 168
ISBN: 9780595238040
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

The stories gathered in this volume display a literary imagination of high order wedded to a probing mind that should command our attention. A Sri Lankan-born black Australian visits Amsterdam only to be confronted by the ambivalence and complexities of his identity; a Sri Lankan family arrives in Perth, their new home, a newly arrived immigrant father, through the experiences of his daughter, faces up to the realities of racism; a husband is caught between the power of nostalgia and the material comforts of the present; a father and son go out looking for ice-cream as they encounter the inescapable ramifications of multiculturalism in Australia. It is through situations such as these that Sunil Govinnage has sought to focus attention and the desire to map the variable meanings of home and exile.

Black Gold Black Swans The importance of the unexpected for the future of energy

Black Gold  Black Swans  The importance of the unexpected for the future of energy
Author: Ullrich Müller
Release: 2013-12-17
Editor: Anchor Academic Publishing (aap_verlag)
Pages: 62
ISBN: 9783954895854
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

The present study is the result of the attempt to subject the socio-economic world of energy to an analysis regarding a phenomenon called the ‘Black Swan’. This concept has been made popular by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has become a widely cited point of reference ever since the beginning of the financial crisis in 2007. The underlying assumption is, that against commonly held believe, it is not a long chain of incremental and statistically relevant events that constitutes history, but a seemingly insignificant number of outliers, or hence, ‘Black Swans’. Consequently, the study focuses on a critical examination of the strategic prediction models used in the energy business today, which are mainly based on driver based models. These models try to predict future price and value chain developments, ultimately searching for a strategic direction. This study questions this approach by showing that time and again similar predictions have been rendered obsolete by real developments. Based on the findings of this historical analysis, the study raises the question, whether it is possible to draw any practical conclusions for the future, discussing methods, which could provide protection from ‘Black Swan’ events.

Big Bets Black Swans

Big Bets   Black Swans
Author: Ted Piccone,Steven Pifer,Thomas Wright
Release: 2014
Editor: Brookings Institution Press
Pages: 97
ISBN: 9780815726036
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

"[A] series of memos designed to present President Obama with a suggested "to do" list, addressing the most significant foreign policy challenges in the year to come. It builds on our widely read Brookings Foreign Policy briefing book released in January 2013. This year, the memos are divided into five categories: Big Bets, Double Downs, Black Swans, Nightmares and Holds...." (Introduction, p. iii)

When Black Swans multiply

When Black Swans multiply
Author: Markus Krall
Release: 2020-07-27
Editor: FinanzBuch Verlag
Pages: 304
ISBN: 9783960925644
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

Risk avoidance currently seems to be the patent remedy for all our problems. Central banks are attempting to defend our banking and economic systems from current threats by throwing vast amounts of money in their way, while politicians demonstrate benevolence in attempts to counter todays social ills – to ›sweep them under the carpet‹ as one might say. A general desire to ›keep going as normal‹ certainly appears prevalent. Without risk, however, there can be no progress, no learning, no insight. Markus Krall, bestselling author and one of the most insightful connoisseurs of the risk landscape, shows how currently unfolding distortions in business and politics, rapid technological development and geostrategic mistakes could lead us to catastrophe. He also shows where and how we can intervene to put our society on a new and better footing.

Big Bets and Black Swans 2014

Big Bets and Black Swans 2014
Author: Ted Piccone,Steven Pifer,Thomas Wright
Release: 2014-01-25
Editor: Brookings Institution Press
Pages: 97
ISBN: 9780815726067
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

President Obama has just three years left in office to define his legacy in world affairs. He's facing a number of critical challenges—the ongoing war in Syria, the Iran nuclear negotiations, an enigmatic North Korea and other significant crises in world affairs. The president's advisors are busy devising policy recommendations aimed at grappling with these thorny issues. From these, the president must decide which priorities to pursue and how to best exercise U.S. power and influence to manage and shape the global order. This book presents a set of policy analysis and recommendations from The Foreign Policy scholars at the Brookings Institution. Designed to provide the White House with innovative and actionable policy initiatives, the book is constructed as a series of memos to President Obama. This year, the memos are divided into five categories: • Big Bets are issues where the president should consider investing his power, time and prestige in major efforts that can have a transformational impact on America and the world. • Double Downs are derived from the Big Bets from last year's recommendations that the president should redouble his efforts on. • Black Swans are those low-probability but high-impact events that can divert the president and his administration's higher purposes, such as dramatic negative events that he will want to take steps in advance to avoid or to mitigate their consequences. • Nightmares are events that look more likely than a Black Swan and could prove particularly troublesome for U.S. interests and the global order, and for which the administration should prepare. • Holds are updated policy recommendations to stay the course on approaches suggested last year.

From Known Unknowns to Black Swans

From Known Unknowns to Black Swans
Author: Carlos A. Vegh,Guillermo Vuletin,Daniel Riera-Crichton
Release: 2018-10-05
Editor: World Bank Publications
Pages: 91
ISBN: 9781464813733
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

"After a growth recovery, with an expansion of 1.1 percent in 2017, the region has encountered some bumps in the road. The Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) region is expected to grow at a modest rate of 0.6 percent in 2018 and 1.6 percent in 2019. This slowdown in the region's recovery is mainly explained by the crisis that started in Argentina in April. the growth slowdown in Brazil. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. Furthermore, net capital inflows to the region have fallen dramatically since early 2018, bringing once again to the fore the risks faced by LAC. In addition, natural disasters such as earthquakes and hurricanes have brought devastation to the region with disturbing frequency. The core of the report analyzes the foundations of risk. develops a theoretical framework to price risk instruments, and reviews how LAC has managed risk in practice."

Responding to Black Swans

Responding to Black Swans
Author: Simon H. Okoth
Release: 2017-06-02
Editor: WestBow Press
Pages: 152
ISBN: 9781512787238
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

Given the frequency of natural and man-made disasters and the degree to which ordinary citizens find themselves as first responders, this book offers some well-researched answers to the following and frequently asked questions: What motivates ordinary citizens to (or to want to) assist others in danger even when their own lives might be at stake? To what extent do human emotions influence public policy and administrative decisions on how to mitigate, prepare for, and respond to catastrophic events? How can governments better prepare for emergencies knowing these facts? The book goes further to suggest a number of strategies for policy makers, communities, and individuals to protect human lives and property. Tool kit URLs for preparing to different types of emergencies are included.

Safety Accidents in Risky Industries

Safety Accidents in Risky Industries
Author: Sasho Andonov
Release: 2021-12-16
Editor: CRC Press
Pages: 210
ISBN: 9781000486124
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

This text introduces bad events (incidents and accidents) named as metaphors. The metaphors, called as "safety animals," are named as black swan, gray rhino, gray swans, and invisible gorilla. The book analyzes incidents and accidents from the context of the safety management system in the risky industries including aviation, nuclear, chemical, oil, and petroleum. It further uses mathematical analysis of these events (through statistics and probabilities) and presents preventive and corrective measures in dealing with the same. It comprehensively covers important topics including real-time monitoring, reverse stress testing, change management, predictive maintenance, management system, contingency plans, human factors, behavioral safety, anticipatory failure determination, resilience engineering (RE), resilience management (RM), Swiss cheese model, and probability distribution. Aimed at professionals working in the fields of health and safety, quality engineering, compliance engineering, aerospace engineering, occupational health and safety, and industrial engineering, this text: Provides an insight to safety managers in analyzing bad events and the ways to deal with them Covers randomness, uncertainty, and predictability in detail Explains concepts including reverse stress testing, real-time monitoring, and predictive maintenance in a comprehensive manner Presents mathematical analysis of incidents and accidents using statistics and probability theories

The Black Swan

The Black Swan
Author: Instaread
Release: 2015-12-14
Editor: Instaread
Pages: 38
ISBN: 9781944195496
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb | Key Takeaways, Analysis & Review Preview: The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a philosophical treatment of Taleb's research on highly improbable, high-impact events. These events, which Taleb calls “Black Swans,” are so improbable that they are unpredictable. However, pundits and scholars are often inclined to fit such extreme events into a causal narrative after the fact, in order to make history appear more organized… PLEASE NOTE: This is key takeaways and analysis of the book and NOT the original book. Inside this Instaread of The Black Swan:Overview of the bookImportant PeopleKey TakeawaysAnalysis of Key Takeaways

Risk Surprises and Black Swans

Risk  Surprises and Black Swans
Author: Terje Aven
Release: 2014-08-13
Editor: Routledge
Pages: 276
ISBN: 9781317626312
Language: en
Available for:

DESCRIPTION BOOK:

Risk, Surprises and Black Swans provides an in depth analysis of the risk concept with a focus on the critical link to knowledge; and the lack of knowledge, that risk and probability judgements are based on. Based on technical scientific research, this book presents a new perspective to help you understand how to assess and manage surprising, extreme events, known as ‘Black Swans’. This approach looks beyond the traditional probability-based principles to offer a broader insight into the important aspects of uncertain events and in doing so explores the ways to manage them. This book recognises the fundamental issues surrounding risk assessment and risk management to help you to understand and prepare for black swan events. Complete with international examples to illustrate ideas and concepts Integrates risk management and resilience based thinking Suitable for a variety of applications including engineering, finance and security.

The Blank Swan

The Blank Swan
Author: Elie Ayache
Release: 2010-05-05
Editor: John Wiley & Sons
Pages: 496
ISBN: 0470661763
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

"Elie Ayache is the only person to present arguments about The Black Swan and rare events that I had not thought about. He does what philosophical inquiry has always done: to go the extra mile and look at the world in a deeply philosophical way." Nassim Nicholas Taleb, PhD, author of The Black Swan, Distinguished Professor, New York University Polytechnic Institute & Principal, Universa Investments. "Elie Ayache has uniquely straddled the down-to-earth world of money and complex financial derivatives and the abstract world of the mind and philosophy. Insightful and insane in equal measures, this book is not an easy read. I wouldn't recommend this for holiday reading on the beach but perhaps for while sitting in front of a log fire with a large Scotch, or probably several.??? Paul Wilmott, author of Frequently Asked Questions in Quantitative Finance October 19th 1987 was a day of huge change for the global finance industry. On this day the stock market crashed, the Nobel Prize winning Black-Scholes formula failed and volatility smiles were born, and on this day Elie Ayache began his career, on the trading floor of the French Futures and Options Exchange. Experts everywhere sought to find a model for this event, and ways to simulate it in order to avoid a recurrence in the future, but the one thing that struck Elie that day was the belief that what actually happened on 19th October 1987 is simply non reproducible outside 19th October 1987 - you cannot reduce it to a chain of causes and effects, or even to a random generator, that can then be reproduced or represented in a theoretical framework. The Blank Swan is Elie's highly original treatise on the financial markets – presenting a totally revolutionary rethinking of derivative pricing and technology. It is not a diatribe against Nassim Taleb's The Black Swan, but criticises the whole background or framework of predictable and unpredictable events – white and black swans alike – , i.e. the very category of prediction. In this revolutionary book, Elie redefines the components of the technology needed to price and trade derivatives. Most importantly, and drawing on a long tradition of philosophy of the event from Henri Bergson to Gilles Deleuze, to Alain Badiou, and on a recent brand of philosophy of contingency, embodied by the speculative materialism of Quentin Meillassoux, Elie redefines the market itself against the common perceptions of orthodox financial theory, general equilibrium theory and the sociology of finance. This book will change the way that we think about derivatives and approach the market. If anything, derivatives should be renamed contingent claims, where contingency is now absolute and no longer derivative, and the market is just its medium. The book also establishes the missing link between quantitative modelling (no longer dependent on probability theory but on a novel brand of mathematics which Elie calls the mathematics of price) and the reality of the market."

Critique on Black Swan and Nicholas Taleb

Critique on Black Swan and Nicholas Taleb
Author: IntroBooks Team
Release: 2023
Editor: IntroBooks
Pages: 329
ISBN:
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is a Lebanese born American literateur, scholar, essayist, trade-cum-risk analyst, statistician and so on. His multi-faceted talent and the ability to wander freely amongst diverse faculty of subjects have made him a force to reckon with in the gamut of global intellectual society. Most of Taleb's works are related to the dilemma of volatility, probability and uncertainty. Nicholas Taleb was born in Amioun (Lebanon) in the year 1960. He is an author of international fame and has served as an academician in several universities and is currently positioned as a distinguished professor of Risk Engineering at the New York University (Tandon School of Engineering). He has authored so many books to devour. The Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, Fooled by Randomness, The Bed of Procrustes, Dynamic Hedging to name a few (combinedly called Incerto) are termed as Taleb’s most outstanding creations in the contemporary literary world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has had devoted a good 21 years as a risk-taker (quantitative trader) before becoming a wanderer and researcher in spheres of mathematics, philosophy and largely potential problems with chance and probability. Over and above being impressed as a trader, Taleb has also written over 50 academic articles in multiple subjects as a sequel to Incerto. The topics covered are from physics, philosophy, statistics, economics, ethics, quantitative finance and international affairs. The central idea in all these creations has centered on the notion of risk and probability with an undercurrent of randomness.

Green Swans

Green Swans
Author: John Elkington
Release: 2020-04-07
Editor: Greenleaf Book Group
Pages: 296
ISBN: 9781732439139
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

Even leading capitalists admit that capitalism is broken. Green Swans is a manifesto for system change designed to serve people, planet, and prosperity. In his twentieth book, John Elkington—dubbed the “Godfather of Sustainability”—explores new forms of capitalism fit for the twenty-first century. If Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s “Black Swans” are problems that can take us exponentially toward breakdown, then “Green Swans” are solutions that take us exponentially toward breakthrough. The success—and survival—of humanity now depends on how we rein in the first and accelerate the second. Green Swans draws on Elkington’s firsthand experience in some of the world’s best-known boardrooms and C-suites. Using case studies, real-world examples, and profiles on emergent technologies, Elkington shows how the weirdest “Ugly Ducklings” of today’s world may turn into tomorrow’s world-saving Green Swans. This book is a must-read for business leaders in corporations great and small who want to help their businesses survive the coming shift in global priorities over the next decade and expand their horizons from responsibility, through resilience, and onto regeneration.

Sex Rage

Sex   Rage
Author: Eve Babitz
Release: 2018-07-05
Editor: Canongate Books
Pages: 193
ISBN: 9781786892751
Language: en
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DESCRIPTION BOOK:

It is the 1970s in LA, and Jacaranda Leven - child of sun and surf - is swept into the dazzling cultural milieu of the beautiful people. Floating on a cloud of drink, drugs and men, she finds herself adrift, before her talent for writing, and a determined literary agent, set her on a course for New York and a new life. Sex & Rage is a recently re-discovered classic from author Eve Babitz, herself a muse to many an artist, writer and musician in the 1970s. A semi-autobiographical novel, it charts the highs and lows of a life lived at the limits, and transports the reader to a sunnier, dreamier, more reckless time and place.